Despite facing significant challenges, the Vietnamese economy is poised for further recovery, driven by a surge in domestic consumption and production, which are among the government’s top priorities to achieve its new growth targets.
Outlined in its 2024 resolution on socioeconomic development and state budget estimates, the government acknowledges the substantial hurdles both domestically and internationally that could impede economic progress, including geopolitical tensions and reduced consumer demand. However, the resolution underscores concerted efforts to achieve an ambitious growth target of 6-6.5 percent.
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), this growth rate is attainable, given the upward trajectory of economic growth observed since the middle of last year.
Following a 3.32 percent year-on-year growth in Q1 2023, the Vietnamese economy rebounded to 4.14 percent in Q2, 5.33 percent in Q3, and 6.72 percent in Q4. The annual growth rate reached 5.05 percent, a figure emphasized by Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong as notable compared to other regional and global counterparts. “For the first time, our country’s GDP exceeded $400 billion, ranking third in ASEAN and among the top 40 economies globally, and the top 20 in terms of trade and foreign investment attraction,” he remarked.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh echoed this sentiment, stating, “Our economic growth has demonstrated consistent quarter-on-quarter recovery, and the 5.05 percent growth rate for the entirety of 2023 places Vietnam among the high-growth nations in the region and beyond. Numerous prominent international organizations have highly praised the achievements and future prospects of the Vietnamese economy.”
The MPI reports that Vietnam’s industrial production in Q4 2024 exhibited a more positive trend compared to Q3, with an estimated added value increasing by 6.86 percent year-on-year. In 2023, industrial production grew by 3.02 percent year-on-year, with the manufacturing and processing industry expanding by 3.62 percent.
Meanwhile, total retail and consumption service revenue in 2023 is projected to surpass $262.94 billion, marking a 9.6 percent year-on-year increase. Goods retail revenue is expected to reach $205 billion, accounting for 78 percent of the total and increasing by 8.6 percent year-on-year. Prices for key categories, such as cultural and educational items, food, home appliances, and garments, also saw notable growth.
