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This year, Vietnam has experienced its longest period of declining exports in more than a decade, which has hurt the manufacturing sector and dragged down GDP growth. The good news is that we believe the worst is behind us, as inventories in the US are normalizing and additional manufacturing capabilities are being developed by FDI companies diversifying away from China.
In today’s Insight newsletter, Michael Kokalari, VinaCapital’s Chief Economist, discusses why we believe the plunge in Vietnam’s exports has bottomed out, and how a rebound in exports will boost Vietnam’s economic growth and stock market. While the market has seen some volatility in the past week, the fundamentals remain solid, and we project earnings growth of more than 20% in 2024.
