Anticipated recoveries in consumption and production, coupled with increased global demand for goods, are poised to propel Vietnam to the top spot for growth within the ASEAN region this year.
According to FocusEconomics, global analysts forecasted a 4.5% growth for ASEAN in 2024, surpassing last year’s 4% growth rate.
FocusEconomics stated, “The consensus points towards a GDP growth surge in ASEAN for 2024 compared to 2023, driven by a resurgence in tourism, lower inflation, interest rates, and a recovery in the global tech sector. However, challenges such as subdued activity in China and the residual impacts of El Niño may hinder growth. Moreover, lower-than-expected external demand and geopolitical tensions pose potential risks.”
FocusEconomics predicts Vietnam to be the fastest-growing major economy within ASEAN in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 6%, surpassing last year’s 5.02%. Vietnam aims for a growth target of 6-6.5% for the same year.
FocusEconomics further commented, “In Q1/2024, we anticipate Vietnam’s GDP growth to accelerate from Q4 2023, outpacing other major ASEAN economies, driven by a surge in tourist arrivals and an emerging recovery in global electronics demand. While January saw significant spikes in merchandise exports and industrial output, these figures were somewhat inflated due to Lunar New Year disruptions.”
“Improvements in global electronics demand will boost industrial output and goods exports, while higher visitor arrivals will support services activity,” added the analysts.
Vietnam’s General Statistics Office recently reported a 5.7% year-on-year increase in the country’s Industrial Production Index (IIP) for the first two months of 2024, compared to a 2.9% decrease in the same period last year.
Electronics, computers, and spare parts exports surged to $9.54 billion, marking a 34% increase year-on-year, while mobile phones and spare parts exports reached $9.58 billion, up by 4.1%.
Wanwisa May Vorranikulkij, a senior economist at the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) in Singapore, affirmed Vietnam’s position at the forefront of ASEAN’s economic growth this year. “Compared to other ASEAN countries, Vietnam’s growth in 2023 remained notably robust,” Vorranikulkij stated.
AMRO projects Vietnam’s economic growth to reach 6% in 2024, surpassing ASEAN’s average rate of 4.5%. The growth trajectory in Vietnam will be driven by the continued normalization of retail goods inventory in the US, the recovery of the global semiconductor market, and increased demand from the EU.
