Contrary to expectations amid the current economic downturn, housing prices have not experienced a decline, and in some segments, they have even risen. This stands in stark contrast to the 2008 recession, where certain cities witnessed a dramatic fall in property values.
Since mid-2022, when the real estate market exhibited initial signs of a downturn, there has been an anticipation of a significant drop in housing prices, reminiscent of the 2008-09 period. During that recession, apartments in HCMC and Hanoi were sold at heavily discounted rates as owners sought to minimize their losses.
In 2008, housing prices plummeted by an average of 30% for the year and up to 60% in certain parts of HCMC, as reported by the Ministry of Finance. This downward trend persisted until 2012.
However, over the past 12 months, both townhouse and land prices have seen only marginal decreases in the secondary market. Meanwhile, apartment prices have increased in Hanoi and remained stable in HCMC, according to a survey conducted by VnExpress.
In specific areas of HCMC, townhouse prices have dropped by 15-20%, as year-end financial obligations compelled some sellers to reduce their prices.
Data from the property listing platform Batdongsan indicates an overall 6% increase in real estate prices this year. Analysts do not foresee a further decline in prices due to limited supply.
Furthermore, research from real estate market firm CBRE reveals that the number of new apartments built in Hanoi this year has reached a 10-year low. Additionally, 90% of this supply falls within the premium segment, leading to a shortage of affordable housing. Similarly, high-end housing has dominated over 70% of the HCMC market in the last three years.