Vietnam is projected to break into the Top 25 global economies by 2038, as per the World Economic League Table (WELT) rankings by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
The GDP of Vietnam is expected to maintain an average growth of 6.7 percent from 2024 to 2028, with a subsequent forecast of 6.4 percent annual growth over the next nine years. The CEBR predicts Vietnam’s rapid ascent in the WELT rankings, moving from 34th place in the previous year to 21st by 2038.
Classified as a lower-middle-income country, Vietnam recorded an estimated GDP per person of $14,285 in 2023, factoring in the cost of living. Despite a projected slowdown to 4.7 percent growth in the previous year, following an 8 percent expansion in 2022, Vietnam’s output for 2023 remains 19.3 percent above the 2019 level.
In contrast to many economies, Vietnam maintained robust growth with a modest 3.4 percent inflation in the previous year. The State Bank of Vietnam noted controlled inflation, enabling a loosened monetary policy.
A key factor in Vietnam’s strong 2023 performance was the tight labor market, reflected in a decreased unemployment rate of 2.1 percent, providing impetus to consumer spending.
The CEBR foresees Vietnam climbing to 33rd place in the WELT rankings this year with a GDP of $462 billion. With favorable demographics, Vietnam’s ambition to achieve high-income status by 2045 seems plausible, along with its commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, although not yet codified in law.