Anticipating a Revival in the Property Market by Late 2024
Analysts predict that the property sector will face three more challenging quarters before it initiates a recovery in the second half of next year. In the third quarter, the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) recorded 6,000 property transactions nationwide, which is 1.5 times higher than the second quarter. Vo Hong Thang, the director of markets at property consultancy DKRA Group, noted that there is more positivity in the market compared to the beginning of the year.
In the south alone, 4,800 apartments, houses, and land lots were introduced to the market in the third quarter, with 70% of them being sold. Thang mentioned that a small portion of new supply is expected to enter the market this quarter, and with declining loan interest rates, demand is expected to remain stable. However, significant signs of recovery will likely only become visible from July next year onwards. Thang stated that properties meeting real demand, particularly those in the affordable and mid-range segments, will be the first to be purchased, while speculative assets will have to wait for three quarters for a recovery.
Duong Thuy Dung, senior director at property consultancy CBRE Vietnam, also expressed that the affordable and mid-range segments will begin to recover in the third quarter of next year, while high-end products like villas and shophouses will experience a slower recovery in early 2025. Le Dinh Chung, a researcher at VARS, emphasized the need for policies to encourage both supply and demand. Currently, only around 10% of projects have been able to navigate through bureaucracy, and loan interest rates remain higher than expected for most buyers.
A recent survey conducted by property listing platform Batdongsan revealed that 40% of respondents anticipate a recovery in the second half of next year at the earliest. Nguyen Quoc Anh, the deputy director of the platform, mentioned that government policies to support the sector will start yielding results in the last two quarters of next year. Su Ngoc Khuong, a senior director of property consultancy Savills Vietnam, stated that both fiscal and monetary policies are being adjusted to facilitate a healthy recovery. Khuong argued that law changes aimed at reducing bureaucracy and increasing the housing supply in 2024 and 2025 will contribute to the market’s revival.