Vietnam's population estimated to decline to 72 million by 2100

Vietnam’s population expected to reach 107 million in 2044, then decline to 72 million by 2100 due to declining birth rates. Ha Anh Duc, head of the Ministry of Health’s office, stated at a conference that an international study released in 2020 predicted a 50% reduction in the population of 23 countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, by 2100.

The study indicated that Vietnam’s population could rise to 107 million in 2044 before decreasing to 72 million in 2100 if no measures are taken to increase birth rates. Currently, Vietnam has a population of over 100 million, with rapidly declining birth rates and an aging population. The health ministry reports a significant decline in birth rates across several Asia-Pacific countries over the past 70 years. South Korea, for example, has the world’s lowest total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.8, well below the replacement fertility level of 2.1. Duc stated that the number of people aged over 60 in the region is expected to triple between 2010 and 2050.

Vietnam has experienced a decrease in birth rates from 6.5 children per woman in the 1960s to 2.05 in 2020. In comparison, France took 115 years to transition from having an aging population (at least 7% aged 65 and above) to an aged population (at least 14% aged 65 and above), while Vietnam accomplished this in just 19 years. Birth rates vary significantly among different regions in Vietnam, with Ho Chi Minh City having the lowest birth rates at only 1.39 children per woman of reproductive age. It is estimated that around 1 million couples in Vietnam, accounting for approximately 7.7% of all couples, are unable to have children biologically, with about half of them being below the age of 30. Duc emphasized that low birth rates directly impact the population structure, resulting in a reduced number of individuals in the working-age population and affecting migration, among other consequences.

Nguyen Thi Lien Huong, deputy health minister, noted that birth rates on most continents are declining to levels far below replacement fertility, leading to labor shortages and issues related to an aging population. Global labor shortages are expected to be widespread after 2055 and are considered one of the most challenging problems of the 21st century. Various countries have implemented policies to address declining birth rates, such as providing financial assistance and tax exemptions to encourage couples to have children. In Vietnam, a draft law on population proposes that localities with low birth rates provide financial support to women giving birth to their second child and offer tuition exemptions for these children.